Strong past performance, lower transaction costs than in Europe and a growth plan to 2040, but also an exit you should think through before you buy
If you bought an off-plan apartment in Dubai a few years ago, you could often pass it on after just one or two years at a substantial profit. Flipping was, for a while, close to routine. In August 2026, the average residential price per square foot fell year on year for the first time since 2021, by roughly 1.7 percent according to one market report. Is the party over? More likely a phase has begun in which you have to look more closely. And that is exactly when it gets interesting for buyers who see Dubai not as a speculation but as one building block of their wealth.
Dubai property in 2026: a strong run, now at two speeds
Since 2022 the market has had an exceptionally strong run. In some prime segments, villa prices have risen by well over 100 percent since the pandemic, according to market data. Across the whole villa market, prices eased slightly in August 2026. Even so, about 79,300 sales worth roughly AED 221 billion were registered in the first half of 2026, around 14 percent fewer transactions than a year earlier (Engel & Völkers). Between 68 and 70 percent of August sales were in projects that are not yet completed (Edwards & Towers market report).
At the same time, new supply is coming. According to Engel & Völkers, about 83,000 handovers are planned for 2026, though the number actually completed is usually lower. Prime locations with tight supply hold up better than areas where many new buildings complete at once. Calling this a crisis would be an exaggeration. Calling it a sure thing would be too.
What speaks for Dubai: costs, rents, the 2040 plan
Several arguments favour Dubai, and they should not get lost behind the risks. The first is transaction costs. A purchase in Dubai mainly involves the 4 percent transfer fee and, on a resale, usually about 2 percent agent commission. In Germany, purchase costs run roughly between 5 and 11 percent depending on the state and the broker, according to common overviews and as a rough estimate: real estate transfer tax of 3.5 to 6.5 percent, notary and land registry of about 1.5 to 2 percent, and up to roughly 3.6 percent if a broker is involved.
The second is ongoing yield. Average gross rental yield was about 6.3 percent in August 2026, around 6.7 percent for apartments and around 4.5 percent for villas. Tenancy contracts in Dubai are registered in a regulated system (Ejari), which gives landlords a clearer legal footing than in many European markets. As things stand today, there is also no annual property tax and no wealth tax in Dubai. Taxes and reporting duties in your country of residence remain unaffected.
The third is the outlook. With the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan, the city aims to raise its population from about 3.3 million (2020) to around 5.8 million (Gulf News), and the daytime population including commuters and visitors from 4.5 to about 7.8 million. Plans are not guarantees. But a market geared to growing demand starts from a different position than a shrinking housing market.
The costs in a worked example
Even with lower transaction costs, entry costs more than the purchase price. The Dubai Land Department transfer fee is 4 percent, formally split between buyer and seller but usually paid by the buyer in practice (Dubai Land Department). On top come the registration trustee fee (AED 4,000 plus VAT for properties above AED 500,000) and administrative fees.
An example: you buy a resale apartment for AED 2 million. AED 80,000 goes to the Dubai Land Department, about 4,200 to the registration trustee, roughly 1,000 to 1,200 to title deed and administration, and about 40,000 as commission. That is a good AED 125,000, or about 6 percent. On a later sale, perhaps another 2 percent commission, though commissions are negotiable. The price would have to rise by roughly 8 to 9 percent before you break even, and service charges, vacancy and financing costs are not yet included. This is an assumption-based calculation, not an offer.
Off-plan: strong gains in the past, a more demanding exit today
Off-plan properties have risen very strongly in recent years, and many buyers took substantial profits after just one or two years. How large the share of these flips really was is disputed. Depending on the source, the figures for 2025 range from a single-digit percentage to a majority of sales. That they happened on a large scale, hardly anyone denies (AGBI). If you want to repeat that pattern, know today’s conditions: depending on developer and project, developers now sometimes require 30 to 50 percent of the price to be paid before an assignment, plus a no-objection certificate (NOC) and, according to market sources, a 1 to 2 percent assignment fee. Approval often takes several weeks (Oliva market overview).
Legally, buyers are better protected than many assume. Payments must go into a project escrow account and are released in line with construction progress (Law No. 8 of 2007), and registration in the interim register (Oqood, Law No. 13 of 2008) is meant to prevent double sales (Mondaq). The risk sits less with the developer than in the market you will face at handover in a few years.
Smart contracts for real estate: diversification without a six-figure ticket
Not everyone wants to, or can, put a six-figure sum into a single property. For that case there are tokenised property shares, where you take part in Dubai properties through smart contracts with comparatively small amounts. Dubai has a regulatory framework for this involving the Dubai Land Department and the regulator VARA, and some platforms offer entry from a few thousand dirhams (Dubai Land Department).
The appeal is twofold. You can build wealth step by step instead of in one go, and you can spread across several properties instead of putting everything into one.
Through our smart contract partner, our clients can buy shares from as little as USD 150. For rented properties, the platform shows annual returns between 9 and 12 percent, for example 9 percent on a furnished studio of about 400 square feet in Dubai Marina, valued at just under USD 270,000. From our own experience, we can confirm returns in that range. That is still no promise for the future, because the return depends on the individual property, the letting and the platform. If you would like to sign up directly, you can do so through our partner link. Anyone who registers through it can receive our consultation, worth EUR 199, free of charge on top of all other benefits. To do so, book a free 15-minute consultation via our contact page and mention that you signed up through the smart contract offer. Once we have checked that you are registered with the partner and have placed your first order, we extend the consultation accordingly. The offer is valid until March 2027. This is a referral link, and we may receive compensation if you use it.
Holding period and tax on tokens: why your residence decides
The tax treatment of token gains depends heavily on your country of residence. In many countries, property is subject to different holding periods than other assets such as metals or crypto assets. For tokenised property shares this can make a difference, from one year to ten years.
An example from Germany: according to a German tax adviser, such tokens are treated there as “other assets”, and what counts is the token, not the property in Dubai. For private holding and a holding period of more than twelve months, the gain would then be tax-free, while for classic real estate the period is ten years. This assumes that it does not turn into commercial trading and that purchase and sale are properly documented.
Ongoing income can change the picture, and whether it extends the holding period should be clarified beforehand. That is why our partner can, for clients from affected countries, also credit the rental yield only after one year, so that the tax exemption is not put at risk. This is already built into the partner’s system. The rental income itself generally remains taxable.
Some clients also consider buying entire apartments via smart contracts. You should have the speculation period checked beforehand with your own tax adviser, as it can differ greatly from country to country for smart contracts and for classic apartment purchases. We are happy to explain what to look for. The basics are in our article on smart contracts for real estate in the UAE.
Classic purchases: where good access makes the difference
If you prefer to buy a whole property, access matters a great deal in Dubai. For classic purchases we work with a partner who, in our assessment, ranks among the five best brokers in Dubai, out of roughly 50,000 on the market. He has direct access to the best projects and can reserve the best units of a project for clients shortly before the official public announcement.
On top come properties that never reach the public platforms because they change hands beforehand. Such offers are in demand. We can introduce interested clients to this circle, where larger investors and well-known personalities are also active. That does not answer whether a specific offer fits your goals. That remains your own due diligence, ideally with your adviser.
Inheritance and ownership form: the points you check last
Many buyers think about yield first and about inheritance and ownership form later. Since Federal Decree-Law No. 41 of 2022, non-Muslim foreigners resident in the UAE can generally choose to have the law of their home country apply to their estate. Legally this is still fairly new and little tested in practice (Withers). A registered will, for example with the DIFC Wills Service Centre, can bring clarity. Our partner works with experienced lawyers who can also provide comprehensive support on inheritance questions.
Whether you buy personally or through a company also affects taxes in your home country, substance questions (see our article on Economic Substance) and possibly visa entitlements. For the Golden Visa, a property from AED 2 million is commonly cited, but the conditions, for example for off-plan purchases or financing, can change. Have the current conditions confirmed with our partner before you buy. For the residency side, see our article on Golden Visas closing in Europe.
What this means for your planning
Three questions sort the decision. What are you buying for: substance in your portfolio, ongoing rental income, or capital growth? How long can you hold without having to sell? And what happens to the property when you are no longer around? Your country of residence will also ask about rents and gains, wherever the property stands. Dubai can be a strong building block. It should not be the entire foundation. For the role of property in asset protection, see our article on asset protection through real estate in the UAE.
How to proceed
If you are considering Dubai real estate or tokenised shares as part of your wealth structure, feel free to talk to us. We work with partners there, for classic purchases and for smart contracts, and can show you what to look out for. Tax and legal questions are best clarified with licensed advisers from the Singabiz Network, as we do not provide tax, legal or investment advice ourselves. The view from the 60th floor is almost always magnificent. Anyone who plans the elevator back down, the exit, right away can actually enjoy it in peace.
