Jet fuel has roughly doubled, airfares are climbing, and a business class award from Europe to Asia can still beat the cash price, depending on where you start
If your last long-haul booking made you check the number twice, you are not imagining it. Fuel is a large part of the reason, the war in Iran is the trigger, and the ticket is where you pay for both. Award prices have gone up as well, but the gap between what a seat costs in cash and what it costs in miles is still wide. Whether you can use that gap depends on a few choices that many travelers make by accident.
Jet fuel costs have roughly doubled within a year
According to IATA’s weekly index, the global average jet fuel price stood at USD 190.18 per barrel in the week ending 9 October 2026, which is 111 percent more than a year earlier. The region Europe and CIS is the most expensive at USD 202.61, up 122 percent (Gulf News on the IATA index).
The trigger was the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March, a passage that Argus Media says carries about 40 percent of Europe’s jet fuel imports (Euronews). Fuel makes up roughly 30 percent of an airline’s operating costs, according to IATA. The index tracks market prices, and what an airline actually pays depends on its contracts and hedging. Even so, a price shock of this size does not disappear into a footnote of the annual report.
Airlines hedge, of course. Lufthansa had communicated in August that about 86 percent of its 2026 fuel needs were secured in advance, and it still expects more than EUR 1.5 billion of extra fuel costs this year. For 2027 only a little over half is hedged (reisetopia). Hedging protects the hedged volume for a while. It does not protect the rest, and it expires.
Where the bill ends up: your ticket
Fares have followed the fuel price. The US consumer price index for airline fares rose 22.4 percent between September 2025 and September 2026, against 3.7 percent for prices overall (Airways Magazine, citing the BLS release of 14 October). That index mostly samples discount fares, excludes trips designated as business travel and contains only very few first class quotes, so it mainly describes the cheaper end of the market (BLS). For premium cabins there is no comparable index, so the airlines’ own statements are the best indicator.
Reisetopia’s report on remarks by Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr on 28 September says the group has so far covered its fuel costs mainly through noticeably higher ticket prices. According to Spohr, the highest booking classes currently fill up faster than the cheapest economy fares, and on long-haul routes more than half of Lufthansa’s revenue comes from first, business and premium economy (reisetopia). Add carrier surcharges, which several airlines have raised. Cathay Pacific, for example, had lifted its fuel surcharges by roughly 34 percent on all routes by mid-April (Euronews).
Could prices come down again once fuel settles? Possibly. Reisetopia, for one, expects big business class deals from Germany to remain the exception in 2027 for as long as kerosene stays expensive.
Award prices have risen too, and that is worth saying plainly
Miles are not a loophole, and it would be wrong to pretend otherwise. Miles & More raised its business class award prices to Asia, the Middle East and South America by roughly 5 to 11 percent between early and late March 2026. Frankfurt to Singapore went from 65,396 to 71,896 miles in that window, while most North American routes stayed unchanged (meilenoptimieren.com). Cash surcharges rose as well. On many routes, miles and cash co-payment went up at the same time, mostly by around EUR 100. For Singapore the table shows an unchanged co-payment of EUR 403, and Business Class one-way awards to North and Central America carried about EUR 200 more in surcharges.
By mid-October, the same Frankfurt to Singapore business class award showed 81,951 miles plus EUR 406 in taxes and surcharges (meilenoptimieren.com, 13 October 2026). That is about a quarter more miles than in the early March snapshot. Award prices are dynamic, and the number you see depends on the day you search.
So the case for miles in 2026 does not rest on stable award prices. It rests on the gap. Even after the increases, an award seat to Singapore still costs a fraction of the cash fare in out-of-pocket money, and as the next section shows, the implied value per mile depends heavily on where you start and on the flight you would otherwise buy.
A worked example: Singapore in business class, three starting points
The same Lufthansa Group business class award to Singapore costs very different amounts depending on where you start. The mid-October snapshot of one-way award prices shows:
- Stockholm: 41,577 miles plus EUR 459
- Frankfurt: 81,951 miles plus EUR 406
- Zurich: 114,532 miles plus EUR 424
Now the cash side. On 19 October 2026 we searched one-way business class fares for 9 December from all three airports on Google Flights. Fares move by the hour. The award prices come from a mid-October search, and we did not check whether an award seat actually existed on 9 December on the flight shown. The cash flight and the award are comparable rather than necessarily identical, so read the following as a worked illustration, not as a booking promise.
Stockholm to Singapore: SWISS with one stop in Zurich at EUR 1,988. The cheapest fare, EUR 1,226, takes two stops and 26 hours. Source: Google Flights, 19 October 2026.
From Stockholm, the cash difference to the SWISS fare is EUR 1,529 (1,988 minus 459 in taxes and fees) for 41,577 miles. That is an implied value of about 3.7 euro cents per mile. Against the cheapest fare the difference is EUR 767, or about 1.8 cents.
Frankfurt to Singapore: Air India with one stop at EUR 1,049, Lufthansa nonstop at EUR 2,800. The lower section is the same results page scrolled down. Source: Google Flights, 19 October 2026.
Frankfurt shows the widest gap. The Lufthansa nonstop costs EUR 2,800, so the cash difference is EUR 2,394 for 81,951 miles, an implied value of about 2.9 cents per mile. The cheapest alternative is Air India with a stop in Delhi at EUR 1,049, and against that the difference shrinks to EUR 643, or about 0.8 cents.
Zurich to Singapore: THAI via Bangkok at EUR 2,107, SWISS nonstop at EUR 4,380. Source: Google Flights, 19 October 2026.
Zurich needs the most miles, 114,532, but also has the highest cash price on the nonstop. The cash difference is EUR 3,956 against the SWISS nonstop (3.5 cents per mile) and EUR 1,683 against THAI via Bangkok (1.5 cents).
| Departure | Award | Lufthansa Group cash fare | Implied value per mile | Cheapest cash alternative | Implied value per mile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockholm | 41,577 + EUR 459 | EUR 1,988 (SWISS, one stop) | 3.7 cents | EUR 1,226 (two stops) | 1.8 cents |
| Frankfurt | 81,951 + EUR 406 | EUR 2,800 (Lufthansa, nonstop) | 2.9 cents | EUR 1,049 (Air India, one stop) | 0.8 cents |
| Zurich | 114,532 + EUR 424 | EUR 4,380 (SWISS, nonstop) | 3.5 cents | EUR 2,107 (THAI, one stop) | 1.5 cents |
What does this tell you? The answer depends on the flight you would really book. If you would take the Lufthansa Group flight anyway, the miles are worth roughly three cents each, which is a good rate by most standards. If you are happy to spend 18 hours with a stop in Delhi to save EUR 1,700, the 82,000 miles from Frankfurt look much less exciting. Compare against the flight you would honestly buy, not against the best price on the screen. These values also come before the cost of acquiring the miles, any positioning flight to a cheaper departure airport and further expenses, so they show what a mile is worth when you spend it, not what it cost you to collect it.
One more point. If cash fares keep rising, an award that costs the same number of miles and carries the same surcharge becomes more valuable with every euro the fare goes up, as long as that flight remains the one you would really buy. Surcharges and miles prices can rise too, as the March increases showed.
Promotions and the cheaper corners of the map
Programs that vary prices dynamically also run discounts, and these are where the lowest prices tend to appear. Air France-KLM’s Flying Blue publishes monthly Promo Rewards of up to 25 percent off. The October 2026 edition lists business class from 45,000 miles to Mexico City and Seattle, bookable until 31 October for travel through 31 March 2027, in the Light fare, which generally cannot be changed or refunded, except for Platinum and Ultimate members (The Points Party). Taxes and carrier surcharges are paid separately. This is an October example. Flying Blue launches new promotions every month, so the destinations and prices will differ by the time you read this.
Regular Flying Blue business awards between North America and Europe start at roughly 55,000 to 60,000 miles one-way when the lowest level is available, and dynamic pricing can push them far higher on peak dates. One third-party chart, verified in June 2026, lists a range up to 120,000 miles (AwardTravelFinder). A promo at the lower end is a different proposition from a peak-date booking.
For readers who live or travel in Asia, the more interesting corner is short and medium hops. AwardTravelFinder cites SkyTeam partner awards within Asia, on carriers such as Korean Air, Vietnam Airlines and Garuda Indonesia, from 15,000 miles in business class with minimal surcharges (AwardTravelFinder). Check the exact route and date before you plan around it. A regional business class seat for that few miles is a very different calculation from a long-haul redemption at 80,000 or more.
Where this can go wrong
Surcharges first. In the Singapore snapshot above, taxes and fees run from EUR 356 to EUR 523 from most departure airports, and from London and Manchester they exceed EUR 700. A cheap award with a high surcharge is a smaller advantage than it looks.
Availability is the second issue. Saver awards in business class sell out, especially on peak dates, and the cheapest departure airport may not have a seat on the day you want to travel. Flexibility on dates is worth more than any clever redemption trick.
And then the devaluation question that you may already be raising. Programs change their prices without much notice, and Miles & More just showed it. Miles are not a savings account. Collect them for a trip you expect to take in the next year or two, not as a retirement plan. If you want the same logic for hotels, we looked at it in our article on hotel loyalty programs.
How to proceed
Collecting miles in 2026 is less about adding up points and more about three decisions. Choose the program that fits your usual routes. Compare the award price against the cash fare you would really buy for your date, including surcharges and the cost of getting the miles in the first place. And stay flexible on departure airport and timing.
If you would like to talk through which programs and cards fit your travel pattern, or how this fits into a wider setup as an entrepreneur who splits time between countries, you are welcome to get in touch. A mile still buys a seat, and so does a euro. The euro just wants a lot more of itself these days.
